Mortality due to Malignant Neoplasms of the Liver and Bile Ducts in Brazil: Trends and Projections until 2030

Abstract

Introduction: Intrahepatic liver and biliary tract neoplasm is the seventh most incident   and represents the second leading cause of cancer death in the world. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the epidemiology of this disease in relation to the temporal trends of mortality and burden that this disease will present in the future. Objective: To analyze the trend in mortality by liver and biliary cancer in Brazil and to calculate mortality projections until 2030. Method: An ecological study based in deaths from malignant liver and bile duct cancer (C22) occurred in Brazil from 2001 to 2015 and recorded in the Mortality Information System. Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, while for the calculation of projections, the Nordpred program was used. Results: For females, there was a reduction in mortality rates in the Midwest, Southeast and North regions in Brazil; for males, these regions showed increasing but no significant trends. Mortality rates for females will decrease in the future, with emphasis for the rates in the North and Northeast, with a reduction of about 30% by 2030. For males, there will be a 12% increase in mortality rates for the Southern Region. Conclusions: Mortality due to liver and biliary cancer in Brazil shows a tendency of reduction for females and stability for males, and this characteristic will be maintained in the coming decades.