Mortalidad por Cáncer Colorrectal en los Países BRICS de 1990 a 2019: Análisis de Cohortes por Periodos de Edad
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32635/2176-9745.RBC.2026v72n1.5403Palabras clave:
Neoplasias Colorrectales/mortalidad, Mortalidad/tendencias, Estudios de CohortesResumen
Introducción: El cáncer colorrectal (CCR) es responsable de más de 900 000 muertes anuales en el mundo, con marcadas diferencias regionales. Objetivo: Analizar la evolución de la mortalidad por CCR en los países BRICS entre 1990 y 2019, y estimar los efectos de edad, período y cohorte. Método: Estudio ecológico de series de tiempo de la mortalidad por CCR en adultos de 30 a 69 años, utilizando datos del Global Burden of Disease 2019. Los efectos de edad, período y cohorte fueron analizados utilizando la herramienta Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Tool del Instituto Nacional del Cáncer de los Estados Unidos. Resultados: Se observó un aumento de la mortalidad entre 1990 y 2019 en todos los países BRICS. El efecto de la edad fue identificado en todos los países, con tasas más altas en los grupos etarios de mayor edad. En cuanto a la cohorte de nacimiento, se observaron un aumento constante en la mortalidad masculina en Brasil, China e India, y una disminución en la mortalidad femenina en China y Rusia. Conclusión: El análisis de edad-período-cohorte demostró que el aumento de la mortalidad se concentra sobre todo en hombres pertenecientes a cohortes nacidas después de 1960 y en grupos de edad económicamente activos, mientras que Rusia ejemplifica el potencial de las políticas de control para revertir la tendencia. Los resultados señalaron un aumento en las tasas de mortalidad por CCR en todos los países originales BRICS, aunque este crecimiento no se presenta de manera uniforme.
Descargas
Citas
Bray F, Laversanne M, Sung H, et al. Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. CA Cancer J Clin. 2024;74(3):229-63. doi: https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21834 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21834
Arnold M, Sierra MS, Laversanne M, et al. Global patterns and trends in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Gut. 2017;66(4):683-91. doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2015-310912 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/gutjnl-2015-310912
Jin X, Dong D, Xu Z, et al. The global burden of colorectal cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 204 countries and territories: findings from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2035. Front Nutr. 2024;11:1473851. doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2024.1473851 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2024.1473851
Jakovljevic M, Lamnisos D, Westerman R, et al. Future health spending forecast in leading emerging BRICS markets in 2030: health policy implications. Health Res Policy Syst. 2022;20(1):23. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-022-00822-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-022-00822-5
Pearce A, Sharp L, Hanly P, et al. Productivity losses due to premature mortality from cancer in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS): a population-based comparison. Cancer Epidemiol. 2018;53:27-34. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2017.12.013 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2017.12.013
Shivshankar S, Patil PS, Deodhar K, et al. Epidemiology of colorectal cancer: a review with special emphasis on India. Indian J Gastroenterol. 2025;44:142-53. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12664-024-01726-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12664-024-01726-8
Motsuku L, Chen WC, Muchengeti MM, et al. Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality trends by sex and population group in South Africa: 2002-2014. BMC Cancer. 2021;21(1):129. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-07853-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-07853-1
Tofani AA, Verly-Miguel MVB, Marques MC, et al. Mortalidade por Câncer de Cólon e Reto no Brasil e suas Regiões entre 2006 e 2020. Rev Bras Cancerol. 2024;70(1):e-074404. doi: https://doi.org/10.32635/2176-9745.RBC.2024v70n1.4404 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32635/2176-9745.RBC.2024v70n1.4404
Li Q, Wu H, Cao M, et al. Colorectal cancer burden, trends and risk factors in China: a review and comparison with the United States. Chin J Cancer Res. 2022;34(5):483-95. doi: https://doi.org/10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2022.05.08 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2022.05.08
Nath A, Taneja R, Thadi YS, et al. A comparative study of incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for leading cancers in BRICS countries. ecancermedicalscience [Internet]. 2024 [acesso 2025 jun 6];18. Disponível em: https://ecancer.org/en/journal/article/1773-a-comparative-study-of-incidence-mortality-and-disability-adjusted-life-years-dalys-for-leading-cancers-in-brics-countries DOI: https://doi.org/10.3332/ecancer.2024.1773
Sharma R, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Rabu R, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2022;7(7):627-47. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-1253(22)00044-9 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-1253(22)00044-9
Chen Y, Yang C, Li N, et al. Effects of population aging on the mortality burden of related cancers in urban and rural areas of China, 2004-2017: a population-based study. Cancer Biol Med. 2022;19(5):696-706. https://doi.org/10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2021.0538 DOI: https://doi.org/10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2021.0538
Wang H, Abbas KM, Abbasifard M, et al. Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet. 2020;396(10258):1160-203. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30977-6
Liu D, Liu H, Wu Y, et al. Time trends in stomach cancer mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2021. Front Public Health. 2025;13:1506925. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2025.1506925
GBD Results [Internet]. Seattle: IHME; 2025 [acesso 2025 jun 25]. Disponível em: https://www.healthdata.org/data-tools-practices/interactive-visuals/gbd-results
Xi Y, Xu P. Global colorectal cancer burden in 2020 and projections to 2040. Transl Oncol. 2021;14(10):101174. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranon.2021.101174
Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division [Internet]. Washington, DC: ONU; [sem data]. [acesso 2025 jun 26]. Disponívl em: https://population.un.org/wpp/downloads?folder=Standard%20Projections&group=Population
Holford TR. Understanding the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Annu Rev Public Health. 1991;12(1):425-57. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.pu.12.050191.002233
Zou Z, Liu G, Hay SI, et al. Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019. eClinicalMedicine. 2022;53:101646. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101646 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101646
Rosenberg PS, Check DP, Anderson WF. A web tool for age–period–cohort analysis of cancer incidence and mortality rates. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2014;23(11):2296-302. doi: https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.epi-14-0300 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-14-0300
Banner for NCI Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics Biostatistics Branch [Internet]. Washington, DC: NIH; [sem data]. [acesso 2025 jun 26]. Disponívl em: https://analysistools.cancer.gov/apc/
Conselho Nacional de Saúde (BR). Resolução n° 510, de 7 de abril de 2016. Dispõe sobre as normas aplicáveis a pesquisas em Ciências Humanas e Sociais cujos procedimentos metodológicos envolvam a utilização de dados diretamente obtidos com os participantes ou de informações identificáveis ou que possam acarretar riscos maiores do que os existentes na vida cotidiana, na forma definida nesta Resolução [Internet]. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, DF. 2016 maio 24 [acesso 2025 abr 7]; Seção 1:44. Disponível em: http://bvsms.saude.gov.br/bvs/saudelegis/cns/2016/res0510_07_04_2016.html
Muzi CD, Banegas MP, Guimarães RM. Colorectal cancer disparities in Latin America: mortality trends 1990-2019 and a paradox association with human development. PLoS One. 2023;18(8):e0289675. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289675 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0289675
Filogonio V, Maia YR, Maia LH. The challenge of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in low and middle-income countries (LMIC): the brazilian ten year long experience. JCO Glob Oncol. 2023;9(Sup1):129. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1200/GO.2023.9.Supplement_1.129
World Health Organization. Global Health Expenditure Database [Internet]. Genebra: WHO; 2025 [acesso 2025 jun 9]. Disponível em: https://apps.who.int/nha/database/PHC_Country_profile/Index/en
Monteiro dos Santos JE, Campos Araújo M, Marcelo Furtado Passos Da Silva C. Overweight is the main behavioral risk factor associated with colorectal cancer mortality in the Brazilian population: an ecological analysis. Sci Rep. 2024;14(1):28178. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79921-y DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-79921-y
Silva GAE, Jardim BC, Ferreira VDM, et al. Mortalidade por câncer nas capitais e no interior do Brasil: uma análise de quatro décadas. Rev Saúde Pública. 2020;54:126. doi: https://doi.org/10.11606/s1518-8787.2020054002255 DOI: https://doi.org/10.11606/s1518-8787.2020054002255
Ministério da Saúde (BR) [Internet]. Brasília, DF: MS; 2000. Plano de Expansão da Radioterapia no SUS, 2017 [acesso 2025 jun 9]. Disponível em: https://www.gov.br/saude/pt-br/acesso-a-informacao/acoes-e-programas/per-sus/plano-de-expansao-da-radioterapia-no-sus
Malta DC, Morais Neto OLD, Silva Junior JBD. Apresentação do plano de ações estratégicas para o enfrentamento das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis no Brasil, 2011 a 2022. Epidemiol Serv Saúde. 2011;20(4):425-38. doi: https://doi.org/10.5123/S1679-49742011000400002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5123/S1679-49742011000400002
Barchuk A, Raskina Y, Tursun-Zade R, et al. Cancer on the global stage: incidence and cancer-related mortality in the Russian federation [Internet]. 2022 [acesso 2025 jun 9]. Disponível em : https://ascopost.com/issues/february-10-2022/cancer-on-the-global-stage-incidence-and-cancer-related-mortality-in-the-russian-federation/
Avksentyeva M. Colorectal cancer in Russia. Eur J Health Econ. 2010;10(S1):91-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-009-0195-9
Rekhter N, Ermasova N. Culture of prevention and early disease detection of cancer in Russia. Soc Sci Med. 2021;277:113905. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113905 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113905
Petrovsky A, Tjulandin S, Tryakin A, et al. Creation and development of the National Cancer Control Plan in Russia. J Clin Oncol. 2019;37(supl15):10524. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.2019.37.15_suppl.10524
Shishkin S, Sheiman I, Vlassov V, et al. Structural changes in the Russian health care system: do they match European trends? Health Econ Rev. 2022;12(1):29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-022-00373-z
Gordienko VP, Ilyushenok AS. Cancer incidence and mortality and state of cancer care for colorectal cancer patients in the Russian Far East. Sib J Oncol. 2022;21(5):5-16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21294/1814-4861-2022-21-5-5-16
Mohandas KM. Colorectal cancer in India: controversies, enigmas and primary prevention. Indian J Gastroenterol. 2011;30(1):3-6. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12664-010-0076-2
Shaji A, Keechilat P, Dk V, et al. Analysis of the mortality trends of 23 major cancers in the indian population between 2000 and 2019: a joinpoint regression analysis. JCO Glob Oncol. 2023;(9):e2200405. doi: https://doi.org/10.1200/go.22.00405 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1200/GO.22.00405
World Health Organization [Internet]. Geneva: [sem data]. The global health observatory-UHC service coverage index (SDG 3.8.1), 2023 [acesso 2025 jun 9]. Disponível em: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/uhc-index-of-service-coverage
Mackintosh M, Channon A, Karan A, et al. What is the private sector? Understanding private provision in the health systems of low-income and middle-income countries. The Lancet. 2016;388(10044):596-605. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00342-1
Goss PE, Strasser-Weippl K, Lee-Bychkovsky BL, et al. Challenges to effective cancer control in China, India, and Russia. Lancet Oncol. 2014;15(5):489-538. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(14)70029-4
Mohanti BK, Mukhopadhyay A, Das S, et al. Estimating the economic burden of cancer at a tertiary public hospital: a study at the all India Institute of Medical Sciences [Internet]. [sem local]: Indian Statistical Institute; 2011 [acesso 2025 jun 9]. Disponível em: https://www.isid.ac.in/~abhiroop/res_papers/WORKING_PAPERS_files/cancer.pdf
Tewari M. Cancer care in India. Indian J Endocr Surg Res. 2022;17(1):1-3. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5005/jp-journals-10088-11192
Zhai G, Wang Y. Disease burden of colorectal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019: age- and sex-specific time trends and 10-year forecast. Oncol Res Treat. 2024;47(3):76-87. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1159/000535664
Yuan M, Seale Jr JL, Wahl T, et al. The changing dietary patterns and health issues in China. China Agric Econ Rev. 2019;11(1):143-59. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-12-2017-0254
Ong SS, Xu L, Deng X, et al. Trends, global comparisons, and projections of early onset colorectal cancer burden in China based on GBD study 2021. Sci Rep. 2025;15(1):2969. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-87730-0
Dong X, Du L, Luo Z, et al. Combining fecal immunochemical testing and questionnaire-based risk assessment in selecting participants for colonoscopy screening in the Chinese National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programs: a population-based cohort study. Plos Med. 2024;21(2):e1004340. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004340 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004340
Li Y, Wang X, Wu Y, et al. Access to colorectal cancer screening in populations in China, 2020: a coverage‐focused synthesis analysis. Int J Cancer. 2024 Aug;155(3):558-68. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.34938
Chen H, Lu B, Dai M, Colorectal cancer screening in China: status, challenges, and prospects - China, 2022. China CDC Wkly. 2022;4(15):322-8. doi: https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2022.077 DOI: https://doi.org/10.46234/ccdcw2022.077
Chen S, Chen Y, Feng Z, et al. Barriers of effective health insurance coverage for rural-to-urban migrant workers in China: a systematic review and policy gap analysis. BMC Public Health. 2020;20(1):408. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-8448-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-8448-8
Awedew AF, Asefa Z, Belay WB. Burden and trend of colorectal cancer in 54 countries of Africa 2010-2019: a systematic examination for global burden of disease. BMC Gastroenterol. 2022;22(1):204. doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-022-02275-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-022-02275-0
Magwaza S, Van Hal G, Hoque M. National Cancer Control Plans: comparative analysis between South Africa and Brazil focusing on colorectal cancer control. J Gastrointest Dig Syst. 2020;10(6):1-8.
Laiyemo AO, Brawley O, Irabor D, et al. Toward colorectal cancer control in Africa. Int J Cancer. 2016;138(4):1033-4. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.29843
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Os direitos morais e intelectuais dos artigos pertencem aos respectivos autores, que concedem à RBC o direito de publicação.
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
